Brexit Bombshell For Economy: New Study Shows UK Will Suffer £252bn Hit If It Leaves EU With No Deal
The British economy will suffer a £252bn hit if the UK leaves the European Union without a deal, a new analysis of official forecasts shows.

The analysis, which is based on a controversial UK government report, revealed a no-deal Brexit would see GDP fall by more than a quarter of a trillion pounds over 15 years.

Shared with The Independent, the study also revealed that the damage would be cut in half if the Prime Minister strikes a free trade agreement with the bloc. The agreement would still result in national output being £131bn lower over the same period. Even a Government U-turn would swipe £52bn from economic growth, the calculation says.

The research is based on the Government’s own leaked analysis, fully exposed the “Brexit black hole at heart of the economy”, the Best for Britain Group said.

Read More: Because Of Thatcherism, We Can’t Get A Good Brexit Trade Deal

Lord Mark Malloch-Brown, the group’s chairman said: “Sadly, now we are seeing the economic analysis becoming project fact and it means that we are facing a massive Brexit blow,”

“Losing billions means we will have less cash for the NHS, our schools, and our public services. This all shows the best option for communities up and down the country is to stay in and keep the deal we have.” the chairman added.

The new calculation is the most comprehensive attempt yet to put a price on the government report, which showed that UK’s economy would be worse off, regardless of the exit deal.

The Best for Britain predicted a no-deal Brexit, leaving Britain trading with Europe on World Trade Organisation terms, would reduce growth by 8% over 15 years.

The group calculated a loss of £252.4bn based on average GDP growth over the past 5 years, that would cut output from £2.62 trillion by 2033 to £2.36 trillion.

According to the group, remaining in the single market would also reduce growth by 2% or GDP by £52.3bn.

Lord Mallach-Brown said: “this Government is not competent to deal with the challenges ahead. They are going to hit people in the pocket through their hapless handling of Brexit.  Starkly, we are facing a Brexit bombshell for the economy.”

The Best for Britain also calculated the hit to the public finances implied by the Government’s analysis, revealing that tax revenue would drop by £82.4bn over 15 years under a no-deal Brexit, by £42.7bn with a free trade agreement and by £17.1bn if there is a “soft Brexit”.

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