Labour Needs Only A 1.5% Swing To Send Jeremy Corbyn To No.10; New ICM Poll Shows
Prof. John Curtice, a polling expert of the University of Strathclyde says the Labour Leader needs only a 1.5% swing to defeat Theresa May.

Recently a new research from economists at Morgan Stanley revealed it is “likely” that the UK will see another election in 2018 as Theresa May’s government becomes more and more divided. They believe Theresa May’s minority coalition government will collapse next year.

The latest election shows that Jeremy Corbyn needs only 1,682 votes nationwide, in 11 marginal constituencies to produce a parliament where Labour is the single largest party. That would give “Prime Minister Corbyn” a chance to govern with the (presumed) support of the SNP and the Green Party.

The last poll from ICM for the Guardian puts Labour and the Conservative parties at the same rate, on 42% each, if a general election was held tomorrow.

Read More: Theresa May’s Satisfaction Ratings Slip Below Corbyn’s For The First Time

Earlier this week, the US bank’s British economics team of Jacob Nell and Melanie Baker wrote in their European Economic Outlook that the Conservative Party is “torn.” They believe this disharmony will eventually lead to the government’s untimely demise.

The House of Commons broke down like this at the last election: 317 Con, 262 Lab and 35 SNP. If the Scottish National Party support a Labour government, that gives a Lab+SNP coalition a base of 297 seats going into the next election. The Conservatives have 20 seats more than that, meaning Labours and the SNP need only 11 Tory seats in order to undo Theresa May’s control of the House. There are only 17 Tory seats with margins of less than 1,000 votes. In all but three Labour was the runner-up:

The total winning margin in those 11 most marginal seats was 3,341 votes. If 1,682 of those people (half of them plus one in each constituency) switched to Labour then Corbyn would have gained those seats. That is the smallest possible number of vote changes it would take for Corbyn to win.

The 2017 general election results underplayed the strength of the Conservative vote, and Labour’s marginal seats are as vulnerable as the government’s. Nineteen Labour seats have margins of less than 1,000 votes. In all but four the Tories were the runners-up. All the Conservatives have to do is to keep their current seats. Any net gains they make will keep May in power. In Kensington, for instance, the Tories only need to persuade 11 people to switch votes in order to regain the seat and increase the size of their government.

Here are the 19 vulnerable Labour marginals:

It’s notable that the most marginal seats involve head-to-head fights between Labour and the Conservatives. That implies votes going for the Liberal Democrats or UKIP will be relevant only in the sense that they weaken the Tory and Labour turnout.

The Labour vote has increased massively over the last three general elections:

The question is, has Labour now peaked or are there further gains to be made? The swing to Labour at the last two elections was 9.5% (2017) and 1.5% (2010). In order to get an outright majority, Curtice says, Labour would need a swing of another 5%. That’s why a minority coalition with the SNP, based on a 1.5% swing, seems so much more likely. “We’re talking about a relatively small swing, so you can’t say that’s never going to happen,” Curtice says.

The Tories have another problem: Their voters are dying. As this YouGov chart shows, younger people vote Labour and older people vote Conservative. The Tories’ strongest base is people aged over 70:

“If it’s another five years to the next election some of the Tories’ voters are going to die off,” Curtice says. The Conservatives have a “demographic timebomb” inside their base, he says, “The demographics are going to move in that direction.”

That’s the simplest path for Corbyn to get to No.10: a net gain of 11 marginals, or a swing of about 1.5% in Labour’s favour, or for Conservatives to push back the next election until 2022, when fewer of their voters will be alive.

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