Pantheon’s Chief UK Economist: Brexit Isn’t Actually Going To Happen
Samuel Tombs, UK famous economist said Brexit won't actually end up leaving the EU.

Mr Tombs who is renowned for correctly predicting the result of June’s general election, once more predicted that Brexit isn’t actually going to happen.

The economist said although finally a transition deal will be agreed and implemented, once the UK comes to the end of the transition period, Britain will stay in the bloc. And that’s because Brexit will be so bad for the UK that no politician will be willing to stake their career on its implementation.

On Sunday, in a note circulated to clients of Pantheon Macroeconomics, Tombs wrote that Brexit will be so destructive to Britain’s economy in the short term that no politician will feel comfortable pulling the UK out of the bloc when push comes to shove, both for the sake of their own reputations, and the UK’s economic health.

Read More: More Brexiters Are In Favour Of Remaining In The EU

Pantheon’s chief UK economist argued that the UK and EU will eventually agree to a transition deal to smooth Britain’s passage out of the EU, but once Britain reaches the end of the Brexit, it will then stay in the EU.

Mr Tombs wrote: “A transition deal which keeps the UK inside the single market and customs union but gives it no say over its rules—is the only viable outcome in 2019”.

He believes the UK likely will go into a transition deal intending it to last for only two years, but we see a high chance of it becoming permanent. Tombs said:

“The key issue is that leaving the single market would entail short-term economic pain in return for the possibility of long-term gain, in the form of closer ties with fast-growing emerging market economies. This sequencing of the costs and benefits means Brexit always will be unpalatable for any politician, given their myopia. It will be particularly unattractive for the Conservatives to implement Brexit in 2021, one year before the deadline for the next election.”

He pointed to information which reveals that support for a harder version of Brexit is falling. He wrote on his note that the public enthusiasm for a clean break from the EU has ebbed. He mentioned the latest YouGov poll that found 46% of people now think the UK was wrong to vote for Brexit, compared to just 42% who think the opposite.

Mr Tombs also claimed that pressure on the government to leave the EU in order to reduce immigration also is fading. Official figures last week showed that net migration fell to 230,000 in the year ending June 2017, from 336,000 in the previous year.

He added: “No politician will ever implement Brexit, as the costs are upfront, but the potential benefits are far ahead.”

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